Study on Application of Quantile Cumulative Probabilityto Water Resources Diluting Regulation in the Yellow River

摘要

Implementing the water resources diluting regulation in the Yellow River is one of the important aspects for realizing continuous flow of the Yellow River in the function. At present, the diluting regulation in the Yellow River lacks the practical experience and reliable data, and it needs a long procedure to accumulate theories and do observation experiments. The method of quantile cumulative frequency regression is adopted in this study to analyze the relation between the daily flow in the Xiaolangdi dam and the corresponding ammonia nitrogen concentration in the Huayuankou Reach in the Yellow River since 2003. Some conclusions have been drawn out that the discharge of the dam in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir influences the water quality in the Huayuankou Reach greatly. There are very large differences between the probabilities of each class of water quality in the Huayuankou Reach under different flows. Due to the water quality is poor from annual March to April, the impacts of the Xiaolangdi flow on the water quality in the Huayuankou is significantly different from the whole year. The diluting role of water flow of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir to the water quality in the Huayuankou Reach is obviously decreased. The scatter plots of the quantile cumulative probability could be fitted very well by using the statistical software, which could be used to predict the future water quality.