A Prediction model for Personal Account of Social Pension Insurance

摘要

Based on the completion of forecasting the total payment of social pension system, this paper gives a practical model of forecasting the expenditure scale of individual accounts by means of decomposing insured, estimating interest rate by CKLS model and raising the definition of the renewal rate and estimating it. As well as an area of social pension insurance personal account expenditures of the empirical analysis.