@@ Introduction Rainfall plays a key role in the soci oeconomic activ ities in Cameroon whose econom y depends heavily on rain -fed agriculture. JulyAugust-September (JAS) is th e peak month's period of highest rainfall and more than 90% O f extreme precipitation even ts occur during this period . Therefore, application of science for pr ediction and early waming with g ood lead time are v ital in enhancing agricultural production and water management. Generally it is not possible to p redict day to day changes beyond a week bu t possible to say something about t he li kely conditions av eraged over three months. The probab ilistic prediction of July-August-September ra infall is an i ndication of average precipitation conditions in t he three months, across a region. It aims to determine if the next rainy season will probably be above norm al, near normal or below normaL This forecast does not re present only the choice of the most likely scenario (preferred), but the distribution of possible outcomes of the three predefined scenarios: "wet", "normal" or "dry."
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