The Application of Risk Management to Investment of the Railway Tunnel Project

摘要

Railway Tunnel Works characterizes the concealment, including long construction period, complications on geology, hydrology, and technique and so on, which brings so many unforeseen risk factors through all stages of a project. Project investment risk exists throughout the entire process of project construction. As a result, it makes the investment risk great. What with this and what with that, the local risk management work is at the first step. So that it has already become an urgent able problem to carry out an investment risk management of the Tunnel Works. To qualitatively analysis the influence factors of the investment risk by establishing a checklist of the risk factors, Furthermore, to make a fixed valuation to the investment risk by means of the MC (Monte Carlo). According to the result of the risk assessment, a risk assessment and method dealing with the risk are got(take some tunnel in mountain area in the FUJIAN as an study object to take into the application). The result shows that there are so many factors which influence the investment risk including 5 major types and 33 small types, and the best total cost of the finished project ranges from 1.6135 to 1.6195 billion. In order to make the project practicable, the best investment cost range at 1.6255 billion. To wish it can provide references to the risk management of other similar engineering cases.