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Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology

机译:定价模型性能与双通横截面回归方法

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Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption that the models are correctly speci ed, i.e., expected returns are exactly linear in asset betas. This can be a problem in practice since all models are, at best, approximations of reality and are likely to be subject to a certain degree of misspeci cation. We propose a general methodology for computing misspeci cation-robust asymptotic standard errors of the risk premia estimates. We also derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample CSR R2 and develop a test of whether two competing beta pricing models have the same population R2. This provides a formal alternative to the common heuristic of simply comparing the R2 estimates in evaluating relative model performance. Finally, we provide an empirical application which demonstrates the importance of our new results when applied to a variety of asset pricing models.
机译:自黑色,Jensen和Scholes(1972年)和Fama和Macbeth(1973),双通回归(CSR)方法已成为估算和测试资产定价模型的最流行的方法。使用该方法的统计推断通常在假设模型确定的假设下进行,即,预期返回在资产β中正好在线性。这可能是实践中的问题,因为所有模型都是最多的现实近似,并且可能受到一定程度的误导阳离子。我们提出了一种用于计算风险首映估计的误差阳离子渐近标准误差的一般方法。我们还导出了样品CSR R2的渐近分布,并开发了两种竞争对手的β定价模型是否具有相同的人群R2的测试。这为简单地比较了R2估计在评估了相对模型性能方面的常见启发式提供了一个正式的替代方案。最后,我们提供了一个实证应用程序,该应用程序展示了应用于各种资产定价模型时新结果的重要性。

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