Modelling the regional economic effects of the water frameworkdirective – the usefulness of a system-dynamic approach

摘要

The European Union's Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC has "the purpose to protect and preserve water resources across the European Union to ensure future sustainable use but is likely to add to agricultural land losses, e.g. to infrastructure, industrial estates and housing. While the environmental benefits as well as the micro-economic benefits - e.g. for water producers and consumers - are well established, there is a lack of knowledge as to the regional economic effects of the Directive. Based on a system dynamics approach, a regional model has been developed for the Emsland district in Northern Germany to capture the economic, ecological and social effects of the Water Framework Directive, and employed to analyse three different scenarios to reduce nitrogen pollution in local groundwater. The results are discussed in terms of regional Gross Value Added, labour market demand and demographics. The paper identifies which issues are important in this context, describes what modelling challenges had to be overcome, and assesses the usefulness of this analytical approach.