River flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC)and particulate organic carbon (POC) to theArctic Ocean: what are the consequences of theglobal changes?

摘要

An attempt was made to estimate an increase of particulate organic carbon (POC),dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total organic carbon (TOC) delivery by theRussian Arctic rivers to the Arctic Ocean by 2100. The calculations are based onthe previously published estimations of an increase of river water discharge(Peterson et al. 2002) and of suspended matter discharge (Gordeev 2006) to theend of 21st century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC2007) predicts the global surface air temperature increase in a range between 1.4°and 5.8°C by 2100. The climate warming will result in the thawing of the multi-annual permafrost in Siberia. The enriched by organic carbon frozen peatlandswill be the very effective source of organics to the rivers and streams. Frey andSmith (2005) predict an increase of DOC concentration in the rivers of WestSiberia up to 400% due to this process.