MONTE-CARLO METHODS-BASED RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MAJOR FACTORS IN DIFFERENTIAL SETTLEMENT OF WIDENED SUBGRADE

摘要

Many factors are involved in the differential settlement of widened subgrade. It is of vital importance to identify the major factors that contribute most to the differential settlement of the widened subgrade. Deterministic analysis,which is based on constants without considering the parameters variability of random variables,often fails to accurately account for the actual situations. In view of this,in this paper,various random variables and parameters variability were taken into account in analyzing the impacts on the differential settlement reliability imposed by random soil-related variables. Means and coefficients of variation (Cv) were adopted in the Stochastic Finite Element Analysis. The results show that the new embankment density and new foundation modulus are the most contributors to differential settlement. However,while the results are generally consistent to the constant analysis results,the reliability analysis results are more scientifically sound and reliable. It is hoped that this study will shed some light on the problems of differential settlement of widened subgrade.