Wind reduces exposure to gas price risk; where possible, utility IRPs should: Use forward prices, not uncertain price forecasts, in comparing wind vs. gas. Examine a wide range of long-term gas price trajectories. The possibility of future GHG regulations poses a real financial risk for new fossil-fuel generation; utilities can manage this risk through their IRPs by: Making plausible assumptions about likely carbon prices in their base case scenario and evaluating a wide range of alternate carbon prices; Accounting for key interactive effects caused by carbon regulations, such as accelerated coal plant retirements; Evaluating a diverse set of low-carbon candidate portfolios, including portfolios with significant penetrations of wind; The ultimate value of the risk analysis in utility IRP depends on how candidate portfolios' differing levels of risk are compared and balanced against cost-minimization.
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