A VAR Model Analysis on China’s FDI, Export and Economic Growth under Energy Constraint

摘要

Since China’s reform and opening up, FDI and export have played important roles in promoting national economic growth. Nowadays, energy constraint is becoming more and more serious. In this paper, the Granger causality test shows FDI and export Granger cause GDP growth while energy Granger causes export and GDP growth too. There is a cointegration relation among FDI, export, energy and GDP. The impulse responses show that shock of FDI, export, and GDP will lead to improvement of the energy efficiency, while the shock of energy will have a negative effect on GDP in a long run. China should encourage FDI technology transfer and adjust export structure to reduce energy consumption in order to keep sustainable economic development.