Performance Evaluation of Naval Minesweeping and Estimation of the Number of Remaining Mines based on Bayesian Estimation Theory

摘要

It is very difficult to get exact accurate estimated value When the Markov process theory is used to calculate the number of remaining mines, because the prior knowledge has not been fully utilized. For solving the above problems, this paper establishes posterior distribution model of Estimation of the number of remaining mines, based on Bayesian estimation theory. Then several typical distributions are discussed, such as the binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution and uniform distribution, and the mean and variance of the number of remaining mines are given. Finally the simulation calculation is carried out for the given minefield prior data, the results show that the model accuracy is related to mine number, mine sweeping probability and other factors.