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Study on the Methodology of Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering the Accumulation Effect of Temperature

机译:考虑温度累积效应的短期负荷预测方法研究

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摘要

The short-term load is nonlinear, and the change of it is influenced by various factors. Be one of them, the temperature is considered the main influencing factor. Not only the temperature of the day to be forecasted take a great influence on the load, but also the temperature of the previous days does. Especially in summer, the influence of the continuous high temperature on the load is different from the single high temperature. It can be seen as an embodiment of the accumulation effect of temperature. The historical load in summer and influencing factor of weather in Zhengzhou city are analyzed mainly in this paper, and then puts forward a short-term load forecasting methodology considering the accumulation effect of temperature in summer on this basis. Not only consider the day-type, precipitation, temperature, and other related factors, but also account into the effect of temperature of the other day in the case of continuous high temperatures. By virtue of the tool of ANN, we set up every single forecast model of total 48 points of daily load. It can be proved that this methodology can reflects the effect of continuous high temperature by the analysis of the actual load forecasting for Zhengzhou city in Central China, and get a approving forecast precision in the case of load fluctuating greatly in summer.
机译:短期负荷是非线性的,并且它的变化受到各种因素的影响。是其中之一,温度被认为是主要的影响因素。不仅需要预测的那天的温度对负荷产生很大影响,而且对前几天的温度也是如此。特别是在夏季,连续高温对负荷的影响与单一高温不同。它可以被视为温度累积效果的一个实施例。主要在本文中分析了夏季夏季和影响因素的历史负荷,并提出了在此基础上考虑夏季温度累积效果的短期负荷预测方法。不仅考虑日型,降水,温度和其他相关因素,而且还涉及前几天的温度的影响,在连续高温的情况下。凭借ANN的工具,我们设立了每次每日48点的每一个预测模型。可以证明这种方法可以通过分析中国中部郑州市的实际负荷预测来反映持续高温的效果,并在夏季大大波动的情况下获得批准预测精确。

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