Med-long Term System Structure Forecasting of Power Consumption Based on Grey Derived Model

摘要

Med-long term load forecasting is the basis of power system planning. According to the characteristics and changing rules of the different types of electricity load and different demand side management strategies on them, electricity load structure forecasting for the research on power development and planning is very necessary. Based on the grey theory, this paper proposes a med-long term load structure forecasting model in which the system state equations and grey dynamic model group about various types of electricity load are established, in terms of the system dominant factors and associated factors determined by the grey correlative degree analysis method, and are solved to realize the med-long term structure forecasting of power consumption by means of the GM (1, N, x~(0)) model derived from GM (1, N) model. The power consumption of actual grid is predicted in medium and long term in a case study utilizing the proposed model. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with the observed values of power consumption, which verifies the validity and practicality of the established med-long term load forecasting model.