Forecast of Regional Land Use Structure Based on Markov Chain--a Case Study in Ya'an City, Sichuan Province, China

摘要

According to the data on Ya'an city's land-use balance table from 2002 to 2008, this paper takes the quantitative analysis on the land-use change. Then, this paper uses the Markov theory to construct the transition probability matrix on land-use structure, simulate the state of land-use structure in 2008, predict and analyze the land-use structure in 2015 and 2020 respectively. This study shows that in next 10 years, the area of arable land will reduce continually, construction land will still be increasing, but the increase and decrease rang will get smooth in different land-use types. So, at last, this paper gives suggestions from different four aspects, which are improving the mechanism of paid land-use to raise the cost of arable land occupation, effectively control the quantity of construction lands, raise land-use efficiency, improve land ecological environment, perform the land reclamation work well, and establish a land-use structure's optimization model based on the actual naturaleconomy conditions.