An Application of the Extensive Bayesian Analysis Method to the Decision-making of Disaster Prevention

摘要

This paper studies the decision-making process of disaster prevention. Firstly the theory and the steps of the extensive Bayesian method are introduced. Then the method is used to solve decision-making problem of disaster prevention. Finally, the feasibility and the rationality of our decision method are analyzed by an example. It is shown that by using the extended Bayesian method, not only the decisions are more intuitive and efficient, but also the emergency plans are more reliable and realistic.