The Design and Application of Time Prediction and Spatial Prediction in Fushun West Open Pit Landslide Monitoring and Prediction System

摘要

As the second largest geological disaster after the earthquake, landslide is harmful to ecological environment and construction. To grasp the features of landslide evolution and to avoid and mitigate disaster is the main purpose of monitoring and prediction study. From the view of the prediction object, space, time, intensity (intensity of landslide activity and damage) of the landslide should be contained. This paper takes Fushun west open pit landslide as an example, makes the time prediction model and spatial prediction model be applied. Through a monthly analysis of monitoring data on an example point of Fushun west open pit landslide, the time response formula of displacement with an intervention of rainfall can be obtained, whose analysis shows uniform deformation stage, then the displacement features of the landslide can be got. So it is possible to make a comprehensive prediction of the landslide with the continued extension by a fixed cycle and geographic information system. Furthermore, the conclusion that both the respectively using and the combination of time prediction and spatial prediction are important ways of landslide prediction work can be got.