Project risk modeling and simulation based on DSM

摘要

The design structure matrix method is used in risk estimate and control of project management An improved risk index model is proposed for schedule risk and cost risk by reason of rework iteration. The simulation model based on design structure matrix is applied to analyze single risk and combination risk in large-scale project On the condition of uncertain execute time and given optimal execute sequence of tasks, relation between cost and schedule is Weibull distribution. Random nature of rework iteration and learning effect are also taken into consideration during executing process. Simulation example proves that the risk index for project management is validity and dynamicity.