A Frequency/ Consequence-based Techniquefor Visualizing and CommunicatingUncertainty and Perception of Risk

摘要

This chapter presents an approach under development for communicating uncertainty regardingrisk. The approach relies on a risk imaging technology that decomposes risk into two basic ele-ments: (i) the frequency of each kind of harm associated with a hazard and (ii) the adversity of each ofthose harms. Because different kinds of harm are often measured along incompatible dimensions,adversity is quantified on an ordinal scale. Frequency is quantified on a ratio scale. Sampling error,measurement error, and bias all contribute to uncertainty about frequency. Differences in opinion,measurement error, and choice of dimensions lead to uncertainty about adversity. In this chapter,risk is imaged as an area circumscribed by uncertainty bounds around all of the harms. This areais called the risk profile of a hazard. Different individuals and groups respond to uncertainty andrisk differently, and the risk profile can be further focused to visualize particular risk perceptions.These alternate risk visualizations may be contrasted and compared across management choicesor across different risk perceivers to facilitate communication and decision making. To illustratethe method, we image published clinical trial data.