ANALYSIS OF THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER FROM THE INITIAL GROWTH PHASE OF THE OUTBREAK IN DISEASES CAUSED BY VECTORS

摘要

The basic reproduction number, R_0, is defined as the expected number of secondary cases of a disease produced by a single infection in a completely susceptible population. The value of R_0 can be estimated in several ways, for example, of the stability analysis of a compartmental model, through the matrix of next generation, etc. In this work we studied the method for estimating R_0 from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. Some authors proposed different methods for estimating the value of R_0 using the initial growth phase of the outbreak without assuming exponential growth of cases, which is suggested in most studies. We used the method proposed by Macdonald and studied by Massad et. al.(2010) and the method proposed by Nishiura(2010). Massad et. al.(2010) studied the basic reproduction number proposed by Macdonald's, which it was divided in two components:the vector-to-human component (T_(V-H)) and the human-to-vector component (T_(H-V)), R_0 is the product of those two components. Nishiura(2010) presented a correction of the actual reproduction number (R_a), he showed through this correction that the basic reproduction number and actual reproduction number are equal, then he offered a framework for estimating R_0. Our objective is to evaluate which technique best estimates the basic reproduction number applying them to diseases caused by vectors, in this particular case we used data of dengue.