Chapter 4 Ocean-Atmosphere Basis for Seasonal Climate Forecasting

摘要

it is clear that other perturbations to this tilted thermocline are capable of causing significant changes in the equatorial surface temperatures. Storms, sub-seasonal variations, and other unpredictable features of the tropical atmosphere will all leave their imprint on the thermocline. Some may lead to expressions in the SST that will give rise to coupled instability, some will pass through the system as subsurface Kelvin waves with little hope of making a sustained change in the climate system. The challenge to the problem of seasonal climate prediction via dynamical models is to build models that must capture all of the essential physics - the mixed layers, ventilated thermocline, shallow tropical cells, wave dynamics, and thermodynamics of how the thermocline emerges, and they must be able to be initialized with the important information that contains the dynamics of the evolution.