We employ physics-based satellite conjunction and fragmentation analyses to estimate the short term debris environment that might be created by conjunctions among satellites in the geosynchronous belt. We explore the consequences of a range of hypothetical and estimated potential real conjunctions in GEO. The work flow is described briefly. Unique characteristics of the GEO regime are examined. We amplify previous fragmentation analyses with an approach to accounting for debris from areas of direct impact, debris from object areas that are not directly involved in the impact, and debris that might be caused by the release of energy stored within each satellite. We review the analytical and computational difficulties we encountered, such as dealing with thousands of orbiting objects simultaneously. We explain how GEO conjunction analysis may be simplified by identifying orbit characteristics that might be most threatening to other satellites, by examining only those objects that might be perceived by available sensors, or by discounting objects with initial states or other characteristics of little consequence in determining whether mitigations are necessary and what those mitigations should be.
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