Uncovering Project Screening Heuristics with Cognitive Task Analysis: How Do Gatekeepers Decide Which Technologies to Promote?

摘要

Screening decisions in the early stages of product and technology development strongly rely on gatekeepers' intuition or "gut-feel". This paper opens the black box of heuristic project screening by investigating the screening behavior of experienced gatekeepers through two approaches to cognitive task analysis: critical decision method and process tracing. Results show that project screening heuristics are fast, based on a small number of criteria, focused on "good enough" solutions, and adaptive. However, in comparison to "fast and frugal" heuristics, managerial screening heuristics are complex and entail several distinct screening steps. The paper provides a formal model of the heuristic screening process.