Actuarial Analysis about Implicit Debt and Fund Operational Situation of Social Medical Insurance in Guangdong Province

摘要

This paper uses reservation of insurance actuary to estimate future medical benefit (Implicit Debt) of urban citizen medical insurance. (1) For all urban population at given moment, estimate the future medical insurance premium and gap between income and expense (Implicit Debt); (2) For "new people" who will take part in the system, consider their contribution and benefit, and then estimate the continual debt (deficit of medical insurance fund)of the system in the future. Showed as result, the Implicit Debt of medical insurance in Guangdong Province is quite serious. The scale of Implicit Debt in 2010 is nearly 1500 to 7000 billion RMB. It will appear during the peak of aging problem after 30 years and the final deficit of medical insurance fund will achieve 2000 to 9000 billion RMB.