The Risk Simulation of Investment on Construction Projects in the Absence of Historical Data

摘要

As the correctness of investment decision-making depends directly on the accuracy of me risk estimate,it is of great significance to learn how to measure the risk of investment projects in the absence of historical data. Under the condition, investment projects are allover uncertain models, the building of which involves uncertain factors(risk factors)including market tendency, project time limit, investment accounts, operation income and so on. Meanwhile,because the major risk factors that affect the project investments are subject to Beta Distribution, the risk simulation analysis aided by computer is an effective way to solve problems of this kind, which exemplifies that the precision is reliable and future analyzes simulation results.