River Flood Prediction Using Markov Model

摘要

With the incidence of severe weather and flooding on the increase around the world, there is a need to improve flood forecasting and warning. Floods cause physical damage, loss of basic sanitation that leads to disease, economic hardship due to rebuilding costs and food shortages. By improving flood forecasts it becomes possible to take mitigating actions in advance of the flood and hence avoid millions of pounds worth of damage and even human fatalities. In this paper, Markov model for river flood prediction is constructed. This model focuses on the prediction of events and can capture the fact that time flows forward. The output will be approximate and show that there is a close agreement between the predicted and actual river flooding amount over Ayeyarwady River in Myanmar.