Decision Analysis of Sequence Multi-Stage IT Project under Uncertainty

摘要

This article analyzes the limitation and disadvantages of the current IT investment evaluation methods and studies the problem of multi-stage sequential IT investment decision under uncertainty using dynamic programming method. First, the variation mode of cost and benefit of IT investment is discussed and described with mathematic formulation; second, the decision model for IT investment is developed and extended to the multi-stage sequential IT investment; finally, this model is applied to numerical calculation cases to testify its effectiveness, which provide a quantitative research method for independent or multi-stage sequential IT investment decision under uncertainty.