Early Engagement Collaboration to Evaluate Business Opportunities inCrude Trading Industry

摘要

The objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive methodology to perform an initial evaluation ofmarket size and potential value of a new hydrocarbon's transportation and commercialization network inMexico.The methodology is based in an integrated multi-domain evaluation from geoscience and reservoirengineering to facilities design and economics; covering four main aspects: 1)Confirmation of reservesand estimated resources,2)Generation of production forecasts,3)Pipeline network design for two salesterminals and 4)design plot of sales terminals with processing facilities to handle expected production.Thefour aspects are supported by an economic evaluation with multiple tariff scenarios for varied break-evenand profitability targets.The initial confirmation of reserves and resources for more than 70 fields spanning greenfields andbrownfields alongside with exploration areas yielded the basis for the analysis which was supportedon statistical analysis of analogue fields combined with a geological interpretation of the target basins.Production forecasts from multiple scenarios grouped by region and nationwide confirmed expectedproduction input into the newly proposed transportation network which was compared against forecast fromsome of the operators with a reasonable match.Pipeline network design for heavy and light crude with flowassurance considerations provided the pipelines diameters and length to consider for the economic case andthe inlet pressure for two terminals.Finally,the design plot of the facilities required at the terminals allowedto size land and infrastructure requirements at a pre-Front End Engineering Design(FEED)level.Theeconomics showed feasibility of the production input scenarios at different tariff for the trading companyconsidering the initial investments required to build the new transportation and commercialization network.A novel integrated engineering solution combining domain expertise with processing and facilities designcovering reserves and resources confirmation for more than 70 fields,production forecasts for all fields andaggregated to regional level,general assessment on infrastructure required to build a new transportationnetwork and finally the infrastructure pre-design for two processing and commercialization terminals.