Making the Right Decisions for Disaster Prevention

摘要

We present a framework for decision-making in relation to disaster management. The use of causality reasoning based on the temporal evolution of a scenario provides a natural way to chain meaningful events and possible states of the system. There is usually several ways to analyse a problem and several possible strategies to fol-low as a solution and it is also often the case that in-formation originating in different sources can be incon-sistent. Therefore we allow the specification of possi-ble conflicting situations as they are a typical element in disaster management. A decision procedure to de-cide on those conflicting situations is explained which not only provides a framework for the assistance of one decision-maker but also how to handle opinions from a hierarchy of decision-makers.