WILL THE METHANOL TSUNAMI HIT EUROPE? WHO WILL BE THE WINNERS AND LOSERS?

摘要

European methanol demand literally fell off a cliff in the final quarter of last year as the destocking process started to kick in down the derivatives chains. Destocking continued throughout the first half of this year. Formaldehyde, the largest derivative was particularly badly hit by nature of its end use applications - construction and furniture. Operating rates fell by 30-50 percent. Some European methanol producers were forced to cut back production as refinery streams were preferentially diverted to ammonia, hydrogen and bitumen production, which offered better netbacks. As prices dropped Middle East producers diverted product eastwards to China, so reducing imports into Europe. Russian producers facing escalating gas and logistics costs dramatically cut back on exports. High cost methanol producers in Eastern Europe idled capacity rather than face mounting losses.