Coming Soon to a Refinery Near You -The Social Cost of Carbon Author:

摘要

The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) is a cost estimate of the economic damages caused in the future, often over a span of 300 years, associated with a small increase in GHG emissions, conventionally one metric ton (tonne), in a given year. Said another way, the SCC estimates the benefit society will gain, expressed in monetary value, by avoiding the damage caused by each additional tonne of CO2 released into the atmosphere. The SCC is intended to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes, but is not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, and property damages from increased flood risk. New types of damages are being added with each computer model revision. Furthermore, as new damage scenarios are added to the models, the monetary value of the SCC increases commensurate with the level of damages predicted. The SCC is, perhaps, the most important number you may have never heard of. But you will be hearing a lot more about it. SCC has already become a very important policy tool for USEPA, USDOT, and USDOE and will be an even more important tool in the coming years. It is already a keystone of future climate policy. USEPA uses the SCC to estimate the climate benefits of rulemakings. SCC is a relatively new tool being used by USEPA, USDOT, and USDOE to justify a host of regulatory actions and new government subsidies/taxes/surcharges. Recent justifications include renewable fuel and mileage mandates for our cars, water limits for washing machines and dishwashers, and electrical demand of microwave ovens, etc. The 2017-2025 Lt Vehicle GHG and CAFE regulation indicated a (NPV) $170 billion savings from CO2 reductions through the year 2050. A total of 68 regulatory actions have now used SCC monetary damages to justify government action. Future use of the SCC will likely be aimed MUCH more directly at emitters of fossil fuels. The U.S. emits about 6.7 billion tonnes/yr of CO2. At the current SCC value, the Net Present Value (NPV) of U.S. emissions from one year equates to $268 billion in "future damages" being caused to global welfare. A mid-sized, refinery with emissions of ~2 million tons/year of CO2, equates to $80 million/year in "social costs (aka damages)." Applying the SCC approach used by USEPA in developing the cost-benefit of recent regulations, the Net Present Value (benefit) of shutting down a mid-sized refinery for the next 100 years is an astronomical $100 billion (SCC costs escalate each year.) This paper explores the new USEPA policies and the possible implications to the U.S. refining industry.