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Near Term Investment Decision Support for Currency Options

机译:近期投资决策支持货币选项

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1 Introduction Our paper focuses on foreign exchange (FX) futures and options on this future contract (also called currency future options). An FX future (or forward) is a binding contract to exchange one currency for another at a specified date in the future. Currency options are often traded OTC rather than on exchanges. Interbank deals are common. There are two basic types of options. A call option gives its owner the right to buy the underlying at or up to a certain date at a specified price. A put option gives its owner the right to sell the underlying at or up to a certain date at a specified price. Derivatives on the OTC market have no standardized contract specifications and are designed manually and tailored to customers' needs [2]. Generally, derivative experts use information systems, in particular DSS, to determine the value of derivatives. Typically, a derivate trader must be able to come up with a price within a few minutes. Otherwise the customer will look elsewhere. The decision to buy or sell a currency option and at what price therefore often happens very quickly. Our research question is: "How can a Financial Decision Support System (FDSS) help to approximate options' market prices, and determine suitable trading times for options in the short term?" Decision making is the process of developing and analyzing alternatives, and then selecting from the available alternatives. The paper focuses on finding the optimal time to buy or sell an option. We develop an FDSS based on artificial neural networks [5] that indicates the optimal time to trade. Some models primarily address perceived weaknesses of models that are in use today by (financial) decision makers [1, 3, 4, 6]. Our approach aims to extend existing models by not only calculating the fair option price, but also determining the optimal time at which this option should be bought or sold.
机译:1引言我们本文重点对外汇(FX)期货和期权这个期货合约(又称货币未来的选择)上。一个FX未来(或转发)是在未来某一特定日期以交换一个货币对另一种有约束力的合同。货币期权往往场外交易,而不是交流。银行间交易是常见的。有两种基本类型的选项。看涨期权赋予其所有者在购买或高达底层某个日期以特定价格的权利。看跌期权赋予其所有者在出售或最多底层某个日期以特定价格的权利。场外市场衍生品都没有标准化的合约规格和手工设计和定制客户的需求[2]。一般地,衍生专家使用信息系统,特别是DSS,以确定导数的值。通常情况下,衍生交易者必须能够拿出在几分钟内价格。否则客户会别处。买入或卖出一种货币期权以及以什么价格的决定因此经常发生得非常快。我们的研究问题是:“如何才能财务决策支持系统(FDS)组成的帮助近似期权的市场价格,并确定合适的交易时间在短期内选择?”决策是开发和分析方案,然后从可用的替代选择的过程。本文侧重于寻找最佳时机买进或卖出的选项。我们基于人工神经网络[5]指示最佳时机贸易发展的FDSS。有些车型主要地址感知的模型正在使用今天(金融)决策者[1,3,4,6]的弱点。我们的做法旨在通过不仅计算公允期权价格,但也确定在这个选项应该买入或卖出的最佳时机,延长现有的模型。

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