A Complex Systems Approach to Understanding the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

摘要

A complex system is one that includes elements normally omitted in classical models in biology, economics, epidemiology, ecology, etc. Such elements include: heterogeneity and diversity, nonlinear dynamics away from equilibrium, organizational structure and nonrandom mixing, feedback and learning, and emergence of macro phenomena from micro level assumptions. Focusing on the classical dynamic model of the spread of HIV, this paper illustrates how one is naturally drawn in the study of industry and health issues to including elements of the complex systems approach in order to understand the phenomenon thoroughly and to draw effective policy interventions. In the case of HIV, such public health interventions can have major impacts upon the medical, transportation and insurance industries.