An Innovative Method:Risk Assessment for Exploration and Development of Oil and Gas

摘要

assessment for the oil and gas upstream industry to identify and evaluate the risks in the oil and gas investment activities. It integrates several commonly used risk identification techniques,including fault tree analysis,brainstorming,and Delphi and event tree analysis methods.This paper divides the risk factors into three categories:social environment,natural environment and resources,technology and management, there are several risk factors in each category;therefore,a risk assessment system of the three hierarchies is built up.In the third hierarchy,a risk grade standard is established according to expected economic loss,which is determined by the risk probability and the consequence of the risk factors.A new method of the risk assessment was presented,Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process(Fuzzy-AHP).The integrated risk grade of oil and gas exploration and development project can be obtained.In this method,the influence weight and the consequence of risk factors are comprehensively considered.It gives a significant reference for decision-makers of the oil and gas upstream industry.At present,this method has been recommended to the exploration and development risk assessment projects in the oilfields,China.