Research on China’s Energy Production and Consumption Fluctuation Cycle

摘要

Energy production and consumption on one hand and economic growth on the other hand are interdependent. Effective supply of energy is the basis of stable and healthy development of national economy, and economic growth brings along energy consumption and demand, as well as provides capital to ensure the development of energy industry and promote effective supply of energy. The development of national economy exists periodicity objectively. Therefore its consumption of energy isn’t absolutely stable. On one hand, business cycle inevitably leads to cyclical fluctuation of energy consumption, in the recovering stage energy consumption increases rapidly, while in the recession and depression stage energy consumption declines sharply. On the other hand, effective supply of energy depends on energy production to a great extent. Although energy production can be adjusted according to energy consumption and demand, these adjustments inevitably exist lag. Therefore energy production and consumption fluctuates cyclically with the cyclical fluctuation of economy. This paper makes a comparative analysis on the relation between China’s energy production and consumption on one hand and economy growth on the other hand, on the basis of the theory of business cycle. First demonstrates the existence of the cyclical fluctuation of China’s energy production and consumption by statistics measure and empirical method. Then structures China’s energy production and consumption fluctuation cycle model, combining with China’s business cycle. Finally induces the periodicity of China’s energy production and consumption fluctuation theoretically and analyzes the relation between China’s energy production and consumption and economic growth, thereby revealing the objective law of that China’s energy production and consumption fluctuates cyclically with the cyclical fluctuation of economy and provides theory basis for formulating energy policy.