Responsible development, and California law, requires that coastal development be sited a sufficient distance landward of coastal bluffs that it will neither be endangered by erosion nor lead to the construction of protective coastal armoring. In order to assure that this is the case, a development setback line must be established that places the proposed structures a sufficient distance from unstable or marginally bluffs to assure their safety, and that takes into account bluff retreat over the life of the structures, thus assuring the stability of the structures over their design life. The goal is to assure that by the time the bluff retreats sufficiently to threaten the development, the structures themselves are obsolete. Replacement development can then be appropriately sited behind a new setback line. Uncertainty in the analysis should be considered, as should potential changes in the rate of bluff retreat and in slope stability. The deterministic approach presented here is based on established geologic and engineering principals, and similar approaches have been used to establish development setbacks from slope edges throughout the world for some time. Alternative approaches based on probabilistic methods may allow, however, for better quantification of uncertainties in the analysis. Although probabilistic coastal hazard assessment is in its infancy and data needs are large, the approach shows great promise. Developing probabilistic methods for establishing development setbacks should be a goal for future coastal zone management in California.
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