A method for using past US oil spill data to project potential future vessel spill sizes was demonstrated including methods for taking into account vessel type and local factors (e.g., vessel traffic, navigational hazards, and regulations) and implementation of spill prevention measures (e.g., tanker doublehulls). A methodology for determining “theoretical” (OPA 90- defined) vs. “most-likely” worst-case oil discharge scenarios was also demonstrated. Past vessel spills were analyzed for vessel- and spill cause-specific percent cargo or fuel outflow. Distributions of outflow percentages were then imposed on various annual vessel traffic patterns to determine the probability distribution functions of spill types that would be expected if there were spills.
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