The Lead-lag Relationship of Housing Price between New and Existing Market Based on Cross-spectral Analysis: A Case of Wuhan

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to explore the lead-lag relationship of housing prices between new and existing market by using the housing price data of eight districts in Wuhan over the period 2001Q1 to 2010Q2. The HP filter and cross-spectral analysis were employed. The empirical study shows that the housing price in the new housing transaction-oriented market structure, the price cycles of new housing are shorter than that of existing housing, and the new housing prices fluctuate frequently. The relationship of housing prices between new and existing market is strong, and the new housing prices are leading or synchronous with the existing market, not consistent with the conclusion that the stock is leading the flow.