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Some Practical Issues on Real-Time Reservoir Model Updating Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

机译:使用集合卡尔曼滤波器实时储层模型更新的一些实际问题

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The concept of ‘closed-loop’ reservoir management is currently receiving considerable attention in the petroleum industry. A ‘real-time’ or ‘continuous’ reservoir model updating technique is a critical component for the feasible application of any closed-loop reservoir management process. This technique should be able to rapidly and continuously update reservoir models assimilating the up-to-date measured production data so that the performance predictions and the associated uncertainty are up-to-date for optimization calculations. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method has been shown to be quite efficient for this purpose in large-scale non-linear systems. Previous studies show that a relatively large ensemble size is required for EnKF to reliably assess the uncertainty and a conforming step is recommended to ensure the consistency between the updated static and dynamic variables. In this paper, we further explore the capability of EnKF focusing on practical application issues including the correction of the linear assumption during Kalman updating with iteration, the reduction of ensemble size with a simple uniform re-sampling scheme, and the impact of assimilation time interval. Results from this paper demonstrate that the predictive capability of the updated models can be considerably improved when iteration is used within the EnKF updating. The use of iteration reduces the impact of nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity. However, iteration is required only when predictions are very different from the observed data. We also show that a simple uniform re-sampling scheme can significantly reduce the ensemble size necessary for reliable assessment of uncertainty, in addition to improving accuracy compared to the traditional random sampling method. Finally, we show that the non-iterative EnKF is sensitive to the size of time interval between the assimilation steps. Using the iterative EnKF, results are more stable and more accurate reservoir models and predictions can be obtained even when a large time interval is used during the assimilation. This indicates again that iteration within the EnKF updating serves as a process that corrects the non-linear and non-Gaussian behaviors.
机译:“闭环”水库管理的概念目前在石油工业中受到相当大的关注。 “实时”或“连续”储库模型更新技术是任何闭环储层管理过程可行应用的关键组件。这种技术应该能够快速,不断更新储层模型,同化最新的测量生产数据,使性能预测和相关的不确定性是优化计算的最新性。在大型非线性系统中,已显示集合卡尔曼滤波器(ENKF)方法在此目的是非常有效的。以前的研究表明,ENKF需要相对较大的集合大小来可靠地评估不确定性,建议符合符合性的步骤,以确保更新的静态和动态变量之间的一致性。在本文中,我们进一步探讨了ENKF专注于实际应用问题的能力,包括在卡尔曼更新时迭代期间线性假设的校正,用简单的统一重新采样方案减少集合尺寸,以及同化时间间隔的影响。本文的结果表明,当在ENKF更新中使用迭代时,可以显着提高更新模型的预测能力。迭代的使用降低了非线性和非高斯的影响。但是,只有在与观察到的数据的预测截然不同时,才需要迭代。我们还表明,除了提高与传统的随机采样方法相比,提高准确性,还可以显着降低简单的统一重新采样方案,可以显着降低可靠评估不确定性所需的集合尺寸。最后,我们表明非迭代ENKF对同化步骤之间的时间间隔大小敏感。使用迭代ENKF,结果更稳定,即使在同化过程中使用大时间间隔,也可以获得更准确的储存模型和预测。这再次表示ENKF更新中的迭代用作纠正非线性和非高斯行为的过程。

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