Emission scenario of non-CO_2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

摘要

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO_2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO_2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO_2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO_2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO_2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO_2 emissions control and mitigation.