INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING A Simultaneous Equations Model of the Global Climate System

摘要

In this paper, we present a simultaneous equations model that provides a computationally efficient framework for computing long term, policy-dependent projections of global climate change. As part of our formulation, we explore the dynamic properties and numerical stability of the coupled system. We illustrate the framework with a numerical case study that utilizes the coupled system to compute projections of global-mean surface temperature change for three global carbon emissions control strategies. As part of our analysis, we explore the system's sensitivity to changes in the numerical specification of two key scientific uncertainties concerning the global climate system.