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Predictability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

机译:北大西洋热卤素循环的可预测性

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Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multi-decadal variability with unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model which does not employ flux adjustments that the multi-decadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. This is shown by classical predictability experiments and greenhouse warming simulations with the global climate model.
机译:北大西洋的海面温度(SST)观测表明,具有独特的空间结构的强多型变异性的存在。通过新的全球气候模型所示,不采用磁通调整的新全球气候模型,即多码头SST可变异性与北大西洋热卤素循环(THC)的变化密切相关。北大西洋SST和THC变性之间的密封对应关系允许与THC的动态惯性结合在于预测北大西洋气候系统的缓慢变化的组成部分。这是通过全球气候模型的经典可预测性实验和温室变暖模拟所示。

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