Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods of Accounting for Probabilistic and Deterministic Data Applied to Complex Systems

摘要

Another aspect of understanding the risks of Cold War legacies is through the application of probabilistic safety assessments and probabilistic risk assessments, largely aimed at calculating and mitigating the risk and severity of accidents. This chapter provides a tutorial on accident risk assessment, which has been applied to a wide range of legacy weapons and weapon delivery systems. It discusses scenario development, merging of deterministic and probabilistic calculations, uncertainty, and facility risk management techniques.