Probabilistic approaches to assessing ecological risks of pesticides

摘要

Directive 91/414/EEC requires that if a plant protection product fails to pass preliminary, first-tier assessment criteria for environmental risk, then it may not be authorised for use unless an "appropriate risk assessment" shows that it will cause no unacceptable impact. One option for a refined, higher-tier risk assessment is to use probabilistic approaches. The defining feature of probabilistic risk assessments is that they quantify variability and/or uncertainty. Potential benefits of quantifying variability include increased realism, representing real-world variation in factors that influence risk, the opportunity to replace or refine worst-case assumptions and they provide an alternative to conducting higher-tier laboratory or field studies by making more use of the available data.