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SHORT-TERM INUNDATION FORECASTING FOR TSUNAMIS

机译:海啸短期淹没预测

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摘要

Since 1997, PMEL has been involved in the R&D effort to provide tsunami-forecasting capabilities for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) in Hawaii. As a part of this effort, modeling tools for the short-term forecasting and assessing the risk of tsunami inundation have been developed. The Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) will involve gathering information from several observation system - seismic network, Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) and coastal tide-gages -, "sifting" through the information that will be used for tsunami modeling and, finally, provide inundation forecast for selected communities based on simulation results. The modeling part of the SIFT project will employ a two-step procedure. The first step will estimate the offshore wave heights using a database of the pre-computed tsunami propagation runs. This phase will utilize linearity of the tsunami propagation to construct a solution that matches observations for a particular event. This offshore forecasting methodology has been implemented for the PDC to predict tsunami amplitudes in deep ocean for tsunamis originated in Alaska. The second step of the tsunami forecasting procedure will include model estimates of tsunami inundation for specified coastal sites. The inundation modeling will use the offshore estimates from the first step as input to obtain amplitude and current velocity estimates of tsunami inundation for selected sites.
机译:自1997年以来,PMEL已参与研发努力,为夏威夷的太平洋灾害中心(PDC)提供海啸预测能力。作为这一努力的一部分,已经制定了短期预测和评估海啸淹没风险的建模工具。海啸的短期泛滥预测(SIFT)将涉及从几个观察系统 - 地震网络,深海评估和报告海啸(DART)和沿海潮流的报告中收集信息 - 通过将提供的信息“筛选”用于海啸建模,最后,基于仿真结果为所选社区提供泛滥预测。 SIFT项目的建模部分将采用两步程序。第一步将使用预先计算的海啸传播运行的数据库估计海上波浪高度。该阶段将利用海啸传播的线性,以构建与特定事件的观察匹配的解决方案。该近海预测方法已为PDC实施,以预测海洋海啸源于阿拉斯加的海啸的海啸幅度。海啸预测程序的第二步将包括针对特定沿海网站的海啸淹没的模型估计。淹没建模将使用从第一步中的近海估计作为输入,以获取所选站点的海啸淹没的幅度和当前速度估计。

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