Preliminary Wave Model Results of Climate Change Effects at the Coast

摘要

There is evidence of changes in sea level and wave height on various time-scales, globally and regionally. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be correlated with increasing wave height in the North Atlantic over recent decades. These changes may or may not be anthropogenic but must be planned for, in an integrated coastal management plan. The impact of any increase in wave height in the North Atlantic at the coastline in the North Sea, the Irish Sea, the Malin/Hebrides Shelf and the English Channel will be quite different. The effect of increasing sea levels, due to global warming, and any changes in tides and surge height and frequency, is combined with changes in offshore wave height. Effects of change in wave period and direction may also be significant. Shallow water wave modelling, using the WAM and SWAN wave models, provides a useful tool for examining the possible impacts of climate change at the coast. This is part of a project studying the vulnerability of the UK coast to changing wave climate and sea level. Initial results validating the wave models and testing simplified NAO scenarios are presented.