Tibet Autonomous Region (later in this paper it is referred as Tibet) has been known to the world by its high altitude, spectacular landscape and mysterious culture and history. It is one of the few areas where yak-farming system has been practiced, and it is the only region where barley production is the predominant sector of the farming. It is situated in the southwestern part of China, from 26°50'N to 36°53'N (2000km~2) and from 78°25'E to 99°06'E (1000 km~2). It neighbours with provinces of Qinghai and Xinjiang in north, Sichuan and Yunnan in the southeast, borders with India, Nepal and Bhutan in the southwest. The total area of Tibet is more than 1.2 million km~2. It occupies more than a third of Hindu-Rush Himalayan region and a eighth of the entire territory of China. Foodgrain is the main output of agricultural production in Tibet. More than 70% of the croplands area is devoted to foodgrain production. Barley (hull-less barley) and wheat are the two main grain crops, which comprise more than 80% of diet intake by the local rural population as staple food. Demand for foodgrain is increasing very rapidly as the population grows and food preference changes due to increase of living standard. Currently Tibet as a whole region, has already reached to grain self-sufficiency. The total production of grain produced in 2000 was one million tons with per capita grain production of 400 kg. In the coming two decades, restructuring of crop production systems and seeking for alternatives for grain production so that crop production would be more economically profitable lies the major thrust to the local government and R&D institutions. Based on the analysis of the past and current trends and changes in grain production, to project what would be the future scenarios of grain production and croplands demand may be useful for the local decision-maker for best use of croplands, sustainable production of grain and ensure food security in Tibet. This paper uses a projective analytical approach on croplands demands in Tibet by 2020, based on the discussion on the trends in population growth, income increase, food preferences changes and productivities of croplands in Tibet Autonomous Region, China.
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