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Collective intelligence: a new approach to stock price forecasting

机译:集体智慧:一种新的股票价格预测方法

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A group that makes better decisions than its individual members is considered to exhibit collective intelligence (CI). This paper describes the design and testing of a prototype CI system that makes stock trading decisions based on group input. We hypothesized that the CI system would outperform the major stock indices, and that the performance of the system would improve as the size of the group increased. During an eleven trading-day test period, the system outperformed the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and DJIA stock indices by margins of 12.40%, 5.68%, and 2.25% respectively. Statistical analysis showed that it was highly unlikely that a random sample of NASDAQ stock picks would have performed as well as the system (p<.02). We also found that the system performed better when trading decisions were based on input from larger groups, suggesting that CI rather than individual intelligence was responsible for the system's overall good performance. Further testing is needed to see if these results will hold up over a longer period of time and with more participants.
机译:一个比其个别成员更好地决定的团体被认为是展示集体智力(CI)。本文介绍了对原型CI系统的设计和测试,其基于组输入的股票交易决策。我们假设CI系统优于主要股票指数,而该系统的性能将随着集团规模的增加而改善。在11个交易日测试期间,系统优于纳斯达克,标准普尔500指数,DJIA库存指数分别为12.40%,5.68%和2.25%的边缘。统计学分析表明,纳斯达克股票采摘的随机样品以及系统(P <0.02),这是不太可能的。我们还发现,当交易决策基于来自大型群体的输入时,系统表现更好,表明CI而不是个人智能负责系统的整体良好性能。需要进一步测试,看看这些结果是否会在更长的时间内持有和更多参与者。

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