Use of Monte Carlo methods in the prediction of change propagation

摘要

Engineering change can have a major impact on the ability of firms to deliver design projects on time and to budget. Unexpected changes that arise during the development process can lead to expensive redesign. This paper describes a method being developed to predict the propagation of change through a product. An original technique involving counting along propagation paths is described and extended through the implementation of Monte Carlo methods to simulate change propagation.