Australia in Mineral Commodities Markets: into the New Millennium

摘要

During 1999 there was a considerable turnaround in world prices for most minerals and energy commodities, except for the bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). The main reasons for this turnaround were: improved prospects in demand for most minerals and energy commodities in the Asian region following a return to both economic and industrial production growth in key economies in that region; continued moderate growth in demand in Europe and North America; substantial production cutbacks in a range of minerals and energy industries; effective reductions in the supply of oil by OPEC nations; and an announcement by European central banks that they would cap the amount of gold they sell and loan in the next five years. Most of these influences are expected to be sustained into the first years of the new millennium. In 2000, with exception of coal, average world prices of minerals and metals are forecast to rise significantly. Gross domestic product and industrial production is expected to grow in some European countries and most Asian countries in 2000 and, with moderate growth expected to be sustained in the United States, demand for minerals and energy is expected to increase. Australia's main bulk commodities, iron ore and coal, saw prices set for 1999 - 2000 at substantially lower levels in negotiations in early-1999. Double digit price cuts were locked in. However, similar falls appear to have been avoided for coal in Japanese Fiscal Year 2001, while increases of between four and six per cent were achieved for iron ore. Forecast modest recovery in economic growth in Japan and increasing demand elsewhere in Asia are expected to lead to tighter market conditions in 2000. Beyond 2000, world minerals and energy markets will be influenced by the expected robust global supply responses of minerals and energy companies, against a background of sustained economic growth and industrial production growth in major consuming countries. Over the medium-term, a return to declining real prices which have been evident for most commodities in the recent past, is expected as exploration, mining and processing technological change and associated productivity growth continues to reduce industry costs. While lower rates of exploration and mining investment in Australia between 1998 and 2000 will modestly constrain the rate of future industry expansion, Australia remains an important contributor to expected growth in global minerals supply over the medium-term. Australian mine production is forecast to grow between 1999 - 2000 and 2004 - 05, boosted by production from recently commissioned mines and minerals processing facilities and commissioning of other projects at advanced stages of planning.