PERFORMANCE SHAPING FACTORS IN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DESIGN OF OFFSHORE STRUCTURES

摘要

This paper summarizes development of a process that provides a link between a qualitative assessment and a quantitative probability based analysis that can be used to evaluate human and organizational factors in the reliability of offshore structures during the design phase. The qualitative analysis is used to define Performance Shaping Factors that are then used to modify standard rates of occurrence of human errors in different design tasks. The qualitative analysis is used to help understand the aspects that can not or are not easily evaluated using quantitative methods. Detailed studies of a series of case histories involving unsuccessful and successful design of offshore structures have been used to develop a calibrated scale to relate the results from a qualitative assessment with input information used in a quantitative analysis.